Our GRAMMY 2025 predictions

The buzz around the 67^th Annual GRAMMY Awards is high, and everyone’s talking about one of the most coveted honours in music: Record of the Year. 

Over the decades, legends like Whitney Houston, Michael Jackson, and Celine Dion have taken home this prestigious award, and this year’s line-up of nominees is just as star-studded.

From rap powerhouse Kendrick Lamar to rock icons The Beatles, pop queen Taylor Swift, and the ever-reigning Beyoncé, it’s a battle of the giants with a sprinkling of fresh talent from the likes of Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter. But who’s really poised to claim the spotlight?

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How we predicted...

To get to the bottom of it, we delved into 50 years of GRAMMYs data to uncover what makes a Record of the Year. Analysing everything from tempo (BPM), energy, positivity and danceability to artist age, genre, and gender, we've unearthed what we think are some pretty fascinating insights.

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Who do we think will win?

According to the findings, Sabrina Carpenter has an 80 percent chance of walking away with GRAMMY gold for her hit track Espresso. If the data’s right, the 24-year-old is set to join an elite club of GRAMMY winners - and maybe even make a little history along the way. 

The song, about femininity being “a superpower”, shares many traits of bygone winners, specifically its genre, positiveness, danceability and tempo – as well as the artist’s age.

A win for Carpenter would be nothing short of poetic. Not only would she steal the crown from her former tour mate, Taylor Swift, whom she supported on the $2 billion Eras Tour, but it would cement her evolution from Disney darling to bona fide popstar. 

It could be the second year in a row that a Disney Channel alumna is recognised, with Sabrina following in the footsteps of Miley Cyrus (of Hannah Montana fame) who scooped last year’s award with Flowers.

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Who else is in the running?

Behind Espresso, Now and Then by The Beatles has the next best chance of winning gold (71 percent probability). This is closely followed by Good Luck, Babe! By Chappell Roan and Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar – each with a 70 percent probability.

While all three have strong cases, the story behind The Beatles’ nomination is particularly compelling. Incredibly, despite being nominated four times before for iconic hits like I Want to Hold Your Hand, Yesterday, Hey Jude, and Let It Be, the band has never won this award. Could this finally be their year?

Their 2025 nomination for Now and Then, aptly dubbed “the last Beatles song,” is steeped in history. Originally penned and partially recorded by John Lennon before his tragic death in 1980, the track was revived decades later by his surviving bandmates, Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr, with contributions from George Harrison’s 1995 guitar tracks.

But the journey didn’t stop there. The song languished unfinished until 2021, when AI-assisted audio restoration technology brought Lennon’s vocals to life in breath-taking clarity. Fast-forward to October 1, 2024, and McCartney’s live performance of the completed track left audiences awestruck, cementing its place as a modern masterpiece.

Could this be the moment when The Beatles finally claim the recognition they deserve? Fans and critics alike are holding their breath for what would be an unforgettable chapter in GRAMMYs history.

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Who do we think will miss out?

While Billie Eilish has already made history with two Record of the Year wins, the odds may not be in her favour this time around. 

Billie’s latest track, Birds of a Feather, has only a 61 percent chance of winning, according to Startle’s analysis. The song’s lower positivity score compared to previous winners, coupled with its genre - New Wave Pop, which has historically struggled to resonate with GRAMMY judges - may put her at a disadvantage.

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Diving a little deeper...

Our deep dive into 50 years of GRAMMY data reveals fascinating patterns. Pop and soft rock songs dominate the winners’ list, each clinching the Record of the Year title six times. 

Solo male artists are still the most frequent winners, taking the prize 26 out of 50 times, followed by solo female artists with 16 wins, and mixed-gender bands with seven victories. Notably, Sam Smith became the first and only non-binary artist to win the award for their 2015 ballad Stay with Me.

However, the GRAMMYs have been evolving. In recent years, the voting body has taken significant steps to diversify its membership, aiming to better reflect the industry’s rich talent base. 

Following a 2019 landmark report from the Diversity and Inclusion Task Force, the shift is already evident: in the last five years, four out of five Record of the Year winners have been solo female artists. These include Billie Eilish (2020, 2021), Lizzo (2023), and Miley Cyrus (2024).

We're excited to see the awards, and if our predictions are correct!